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News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif … - 2020
-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012304069
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Variable selection and forecasting in high dimensional linear regressions with structural breaks
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Sharifvaghefi, Mahrad - 2020
This paper is concerned with problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability …. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows or … variable selection and forecasting stages. In this study, we investigate whether or not we should use weighted observations at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258549
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Uncertainty and monetary policy during the great recession
Pellegrino, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Caggiano, Giovanni - 2021
We employ a nonlinear VAR framework and a state-of-the-art identification strategy to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012495676
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Out of work and into school : labor market policies and college enrollment during the Great Recession
Barr, Andrew; Turner, Sarah E. - 2014
The Great Recession brought large increases in unemployment and college enrollment; we explore how changing labor market conditions affected the decision to enroll, focusing on the role of state-specific dimensions of Unemployment Insurance (UI) policy. We measure the enrollment response to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338736
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The cushioning effect of immigrant mobility
Özgüzel, Cem - 2021
During the Great Recession, immigrants reacted to the drop in labour demand in Spain through internal migration or leaving the country. Consequently, provinces lost 13.5% of their immigrants or - 3% of the total labour supply, on average. Using municipal registers and longitudinal administrative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607464
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In-kind government assistance and crowd-out of charitable services : evidence from free school meals
Ruffini, Krista; Ozturk, Orgul Demet; Pekgün, Pelin - 2023
Many community organizations provide services similar to government programs, but there is limited evidence how increased government assistance affects the use of charitable services. We examine how greater access to federal nutritional aid through schoolwide free meal programs affects food bank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014427923
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Food subsidies in general equilibrium
Hummel, Albert Jan; Ziesemer, Vinzenz - 2021
The Atkinson-Stiglitz theorem on uniform consumption taxation breaks down if prices are endogenous. This paper investigates the implications for optimal food subsidies in China. To do so, we build a general equilibrium model where low-skilled workers have a comparative advantage in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599009
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Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle
Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2017
probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1 and a correct …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914
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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data
Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022
conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
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Global and regional financial integration in emerging Asia : evidence from stock markets
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; You, Kefei - 2017
This paper employs a price-based measure of integration, namely stock return differentials between ten emerging Asian economies and the US (as an indicator of global integration), as well as Japan and the Asian region (as two alternative indicators of regional integration), to test for mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011654611