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Competing liberalizations : tariffs and trade in the 21st century
Bureau, Jean-Christophe; Guimbard, Houssein; Jean, … - 2016
2013. WTO commitments (1.0 p.p. average cut) and unilateral liberalizations on a most-favored-nation (MFN) basis (1.3 p …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011496864
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On the heterogeneous trade and welfare effects of GATT/WTO membership
Felbermayr, Gabriel; Larch, Mario; Yalçin, Erdal; … - 2020
equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 … countries over the period 1980-2016, we find that the average impact of GATT/WTO membership on trade among member counties is … general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO on welfare, which are sizable and heterogeneous across members, and relatively small …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012287974
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Forecasting exports across Europe : what are the superior survey indicators?
Lehmann, Robert - 2019 - This version: September 6, 2019
In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104016
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Gravity without apology : the science of elasticities, distance, and trade
Carrère, Céline; Mrázová, Monika; Neary, J. Peter - 2020
Gravity as both fact and theory is one of the great success stories of recent research on international trade, and has featured prominently in the policy debate over Brexit. We first review the facts, noting the overwhelming evidence that trade tends to fall with distance. We then introduce some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012177012
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Forecasting imports with information from abroad
Grimme, Christian; Lehmann, Robert; Noeller, Marvin - 2018
Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862823
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The elasticity of trade : estimates and evidence
Simonovska, Ina; Waugh, Michael E. - 2011
Quantitative results from a large class of international trade models depend critically on the elasticity of trade with respect to trade frictions. We develop a simulated method of moments estimator to estimate this elasticity from disaggregate price and trade-flow data using the Ricardian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009010513
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Trade intensity and output synchronisation : on the endogeneity properties of EMU
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; De Santis, Roberta; Girardi, … - 2013
Using annual bilateral data over the period 1988-2011 for a panel of 24 industrialised and emerging economies, we analyse in a time-varying framework the determinants of output synchronisation in EMU (European Monetary Union) distinguishing between core and peripheral member states. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724042
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Gravity models and the law of large numbers
Jareb, Colin; Nigai, Sergey - 2020
Modern quantitative theories of international trade rely on the probabilistic representation of technology and the assumption of the Law of Large Numbers (LLN), which ensures that when the number of traded goods goes to infinity, trade flows can be expressed via a deterministic gravity equation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012287305
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Where is the value added? : trade liberalization and production networks
Aichele, Rahel; Heiland, Inga - 2016
, calibrate it to the year 2000 using the World Input-Output Database, and perform a counterfactual analysis of China’s WTO … accession. We find that China's WTO entry accounts for about 45% of the decrease in China's value added exports to exports ratio … results imply that China's WTO accession was the driving force behind the strengthening of production networks with its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517926
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The falling elasticity of global trade to economic activity : testing the demand channel
Auboin, Marc; Borino, Floriana - 2018
Since the recovery from the great financial crisis in 2010, global real trade flows grew much slower than pre-crisis, in both absolute terms (growth rates) and relative terms (relative to GDP, from 2:1 in the great 1990's to 1:1 since 2012) A debate has arisen as to whether this global trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900772