of financial uncertainty over the period 1969-2008. We find evidence in favor of a systematic response to financial … uncertainty over and above that to expected inflation, output gap, and output growth. However, this evidence regards the Greenspan …

We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure … of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a … of being in a high-uncertainty regime. Second, we estimate a monetary policy reaction function that, apart from …

and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and … show that uncertainty not only determines the type of cooperative policy but also whether countries want to cooperate at … all. Countries facing larger model disagreement also need to face larger uncertainty with respect to policy spillovers to …

The argument that policy risk, i.e., uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about … technology. We directly measure uncertainty from aggregate time series and find considerable evidence of time-varying policy risk …

vs. low macroeconomic uncertainty. We find unexpected monetary policy moves to exert a substantially milder impact in … presence of high uncertainty. We then exploit the set of impulse responses coming from the nonlinear VAR framework to estimate … milder macroeconomic responses to a monetary policy shock estimated with our VAR in presence of high uncertainty. A version …

The paper examines the monetary-fiscal interactions in a monetary union model with uncertainty due to imperfect central … bank transparency. We first show that monetary uncertainty disciplines fiscal policymakers and thereby reduces taxes … uncertainty is mitigated. As a consequence, monetary union enlargement may lead to a more aggressive fiscal stance in some member …

The enlargement of the European Monetary Union is likely to lead to an increase in uncertainty regarding the … both types of uncertainty on wage-setting behavior in the larger monetary union and its effects on unemployment. In light …