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Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2017
It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754229
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Measuring global real economic activity : do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958840
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The KOF Globalisation Index : revisited
Gygli, Savina; Haelg, Florian; Potrafke, Niklas; Sturm, … - 2018
country in the world along the economic, social and political dimension. The original index was introduced by Dreher (2006 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011954444
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Building daily economic sentiment indicators
Rey del Castillo, Pilar - 2022
The availability of copious amounts of data produced by the increasing datification of our society is nowadays deemed an opportunity to produce timely and convenient statistical information. This paper shows the building of economic sentiment indexes from the texts of the most read economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013453734
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Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
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Global cycles : capital flows, commodities, and sovereign defaults, 1815-2015
Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Trebesch, Christoph - 2016 - This draft: January 13, 2016
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421571
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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
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The G7 business cycle in a globalized world
Carstensen, Kai; Salzmann, Leonard - 2016
, and inflation volatility, and in global macroeconomic indicators like the oil price, world stock market returns, and … exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that in a globalized world spillovers from emerging markets and industrial … countries other than the G7 play a relevant role for major aspects of the G7 and world business cycle. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499802
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Trade restrictiveness indices in presence of externalities : an application to non-tariff measures
Beghin, John C.; Disdier, Anne-Célia; Marette, Stéphan - 2014
We extend the trade restrictiveness index approach to the case of market imperfections and domestic regulations addressing them. We focus on standard-like non-tariff measures (NTMs) affecting cost of production and potentially enhancing demand by reducing negative externalities. We apply the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412410
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Banking crises and crisis dating : theory and evidence
Boyd, John H.; De Nicolò, Gianni; Loukoianova, Elena - 2010
We formulate a simple theoretical model of a banking industry that we use to identify and construct theory-based measures of systemic bank shocks (SBS). These measures differ from "banking crisis" (BC) indicators employed in many empirical studies, which are constructed using primarily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003994497