This paper examines the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on … inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the …, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty …

production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. -- oil …This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a …

We compare the economic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are … structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in their economy. We find considerably … different effects across countries, which crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price shift. For oil demand …

Revealing the precise thresholds at which fluctuations in oil prices start to affect gross domestic product and its … oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Existing studies assessing the effects of oil prices on economic activity … allows for the possibility that oil prices will have a time-varying effect on economic activity. We also employ the …

inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil …Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high … scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather …

The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline … price shocks may indeed drive one-year household inflation expectations. The model shows that there have been several such … episodes since 1990. In particular, the rise in household inflation expectations between 2009 and 2013 is almost entirely …

This paper investigates the inflation effects of oil price expectations shocks constructed as functional shocks, i … concerning the impact of oil price expectations on inflation and inflation expectations. ….e. as shifts in the entire oil futures term structure (both standard and risk-adjusted). The latter are then included in a …

fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global …The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good … after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the US economy over different sub-periods using …

illustrated for price expectations in the global oil market. Then, the paper provides an overview of the body of empirical … evidence for monetary policy and inflation expectations with a special emphasis on market-specific characteristics that …

This paper examines the impact of carbon pricing on firms' inflation expectations and its implications for central … French firm-level survey data. A change in carbon price increases firms' inflation expectations as well as their own expected … negative forecast errors in the medium-/long-run. We show that a significant portion of the increase in inflation expectations …