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Commodity price shocks and global cycles : monetary policy matters
Castelnuovo, Efrem; Mori, Lorenzo; Peersman, Gert - 2024
We employ a structural VAR model with global and US variables to study the relevance and transmission of oil, food commodities, and industrial input price shocks. We show that commodities are not all alike. Industrial input price changes are almost entirely endogenous responses to other shocks....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014550949
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Monetary and fiscal management, finance, and growth
Thorvaldur Gylfason - 2004
This lecture addresses three related aspects of monetary and fiscal management in Europe and elsewhere. First, I discuss the implications of economic integration for monetary and fiscal policy, especially the narrow focus on low inflation as the main objective of monetary policy. I argue that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011404264
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The propagation of regional shocks in housing markets : evidence from oil price shocks in Canada
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2018
Shocks to the demand for housing that originate in one region may seem important only for that regional housing market. We provide evidence that such shocks can also affect housing markets in other regions. Our analysis focuses on the response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011840759
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Ideologically-charged terminology : austerity, fiscal consolidation, and sustainable governance
Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas - 2019
Scholars have been active in investigating causes and consequences of austerity policies. We examine how economists use the term "austerity" in scientific studies and measure austerity in empirical analyses. The sample includes around 3,500 journal articles published in the top 400 journals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997341
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Effects of fiscal rules : 85 years' experience in Switzerland
Burret, Heiko T.; Feld, Lars P. - 2016
, cantonal fiscal rules tend to mitigate political budget cycles and shock-related deficits. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523766
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Functionality of fiscal rules in a low interest rate environment : new empirical results for Swiss cantons
Weber, Philipp; Zell, Laura A.; Feld, Lars P.; … - 2024
methodological novelty of this approach lies in the investigation of an exogenous shock in absence of a control group. Our results … constraining effect in a low interest rate environment. Third, we find varying reactions to the interest rate shock depending on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015070087
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Forty years of oil price fluctuations : why the price of oil may still surprise us
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016
It has been forty years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431626
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Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
the shock. In particular, we find that adverse shocks to Iranian oil output are neutralized in terms of their effects on … contrast, a negative shock to oil supply in Saudi Arabia leads to an immediate and permanent increase in oil prices, given that … supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
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Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks
Van Robays, Ine - 2012
This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil demand and supply shocks. The results show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621702
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Explosive oil prices
Gronwald, Marc - 2013
This paper deals with three aspects of spectacular oil price episodes such as the one witnessed in 2008. First, the concept of temporary explosiveness is proposed as an empirical method for capturing this type of behavior. The application of a recently proposed recursive unit root test shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009786017