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Switching-track after the great recession

Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar - 2021

We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533939

The term structure of interest rates in a heterogeneous monetary union

Costain, James; Nuño, Galo; Thomas, Carlos - 2022

We build a no-arbitrage model of the yield curves in a heterogeneous monetary union with sovereign default risk, which can account for the asymmetric shifts in euro area yields during the Covid-19 pandemic. We derive an affine term structure solution, and decompose yields into term premium and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285648

The Euro area periphery sovereigns' fiscal positions and unconventional monetary policy

Hülsewig, Oliver; Scharler, Johann - 2020

We explore the reaction of the euro area periphery sovereigns' fiscal positions to an unconventional monetary policy shock. We estimate panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models over the period 2010-2018, and identify the shock by imposing sign restrictions. Our results suggest that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154910

"Whatever it takes" to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? : bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects

Afonso, António; Arghyrou, Michael Georgiou; Gadea, … - 2017

This paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time-variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants. Our results provide evidence of a new bond-pricing regime following the announcement of the Outright...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011735972

Quantitative easing in the euro area : an event study approach

Urbschat, Florian; Watzka, Sebastian - 2017

We examine the effects of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) gradually introduced by the European Central Bank from September 2014 onwards. Studying the short-term reaction of financial markets after APP press releases, we analyse the development of bond yields and spreads around these releases....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011743065

Ordoliberalism, pragmatism and the Eurozone crisis : how the German tradition shaped economic policy in Europe

Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A.; Nientiedt, Daniel - 2015 - This version: May 18, 2015

German policy during the Eurozone crisis supposedly follows an ordoliberal tradition. In this paper, we discuss to what extent this contention holds and to what extent Germany pragmatically responded to different crisis phenomena. A proper analysis of ordoliberal thinking reveals that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528303

The macroeconomic policy challenges of balance sheet recession : lessons from Japan for the European crisis

Schnabl, Gunther - 2013

monetary and fiscal policies is the hysteresis of the low-interest rate and high government debt environment, the erosion of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743745

Exports and capacity constraints : evidence for several euro area countries

Belke, Ansgar; Oeking, Anne; Setzer, Ralph - 2015

evidence of the importance of sunk costs and hysteresis in international trade. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011300368

Export hysteresis, capacity constraints and uncertainty : a smooth-transition analysis for euro area member countries

Belke, Ansgar; Wagemester, Jan - 2017

We argue that, under certain conditions described by a sunk cost hysteresis model, firms consider exports as a … evidence of the importance of sunk costs and hysteresis in international trade in these EMU member countries. What is more, our … and Portugal) the results underscore the empirical validity of the export hysteresis under uncertainty model. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011718600

Revisions of potential output estimates in the EU after the Great Recession

Dovern, Jonas; Zuber, Christopher - 2019

Using European Commission real-time data, we show that potential output (PO) estimates were substantially and persistently revised downwards after the Great Recession. We decompose PO revisions into revisions of the capital stock, trend labor, and trend total-factor productivity (TFP)....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026398

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