Showing 1 - 10 of 2,253
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580
While the yield spread has long been recognized as a good predictor of recessions, it seems to have been largely overlooked by professional forecasters. We examine this puzzle, established by Rudebusch and Williams (2009), in a data-rich environment including not just the yield spread but many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009630664
In this paper we develop a multi-sector model of firms pricing behaviour under imperfect competition. We allow for the fact that some goods sold will be for final consumption, while others will be used as intermediate goods in further production. We assume that price setters are constrained by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508076
The term structure of equity returns is downward-sloping: stocks with high cash flow duration earn 1.10% per month lower returns than short-duration stocks in the cross section. I create a measure of cash flow duration at the firm level using balance sheet data to show this novel fact. Factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011521939
We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566444
This paper proposes a theoretical model that incorporates corporate governance into the basic CAPM, where corporate governance affects the disutility of managerial effort and the possibility of managers to divert company resources. It shows that corporate governance affects firms’ stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010212666
We propose a nonparametric method to test which characteristics provide independent information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619632
aspect of the services of experts (e.g., of doctors, lawyers, and accountants), and the role that voluntary pro bono work … might play. Expert services have un- verifiable quality to non-experts and are subject to moral hazard. Experts who cheat … their customers should crowd out experts who do not, resulting in low trust, prestige, and wages. We ask how pro bono work …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010383298
In credence goods markets, experts have better information about the appropriate quality of treatment than their … customers. Experts may exploit their informational advantage by defrauding customers. Market institutions have been shown … situation in which experts are heterogeneous in their diagnostic abilities. We find that efficient market outcomes are always …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012315945
We show that the disposition effect-the tendency of investors to hold losers and sell winners-can be a source of overconfidence. We find experimental evidence that individuals update beliefs about their own investment ability based on realized gains and losses rather than the overall performance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014251033