We study how precipitation has affected food consumer price inflation (CPI), using dynamic panel estimation of food CPI Phillips curves across countries for 34 OECD member and candidate economies from 1985 to 2010 augmented with climate variables. We allow for nonlinear effects of precipitation...

This paper adopts an instrumental variable approach to uncover the impact of variations in minimum temperature on emergence and severity of actual violence through the effect on food availability, captured by rice crops per capita. The link between increase in minimum temperature and rice crops...

How would climate change affect India’s agriculture which accounts for sixty percent of employment? We study the impact of climate change on the level and variability of yields of rice (India’s major food crop) and two key millet crops (sorghum and pearl millet), using an all India district...

Biotic factors such as pests create biodiversity effects that increase production risks and decrease land productivity when agriculture becomes more specialized. We show in a Ricardian two-country trade setup that production specialization is incomplete under free trade because of the decrease...

We use two approaches to examine the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in global food commodity markets. First, we embed a novel quarterly composite global production index for the four basic staples (corn, wheat, rice and soybeans) in a standard vector autoregression (VAR) model, and we...

This paper uses the endogenous regime switching model with dynamic feedback and interactions developed by Chang et al. (2023) to estimate global food price mean and volatility indicators, the latter measuring uncertainty and risk in the global food market. Both are then included in structural...

We build a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with one-sided substitutability between fossil carbon and biocarbon. One shock only, the discovery of the technology to use fossil fuels, leads to a transition from an initial pre-industrial phase to three following phases: a pure fossil...

We study the capacity to meet food demand under conditions of climate change, economic and population growth. We take a novel approach to quantifying climate impacts, based on a model of the global economy structurally estimated on the period 1960 to 2015. The model integrates several features...

We develop a stylized general equilibrium model to decompose the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements into its partial and general equilibrium components. In our theoretical analysis, we identify key drivers of the general equilibrium rebound effect, including a composition channel,...

We show that economies may exhibit a strong endogenous macroeconomic adaptation response to climate change. If climate change induces a structural change to the more productive sector, economies can benefit from climate change though productivities in both sectors are reduced. If climate change...