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Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods
Cantelmo, Alessandro; Melina, Giovanni - 2015
In a VAR model of the US, the response of the relative price of durables to a monetary contraction is either flat or mildly positive. It significantly falls only if narrowly defined as the ratio between new house and nondurables prices. These findings survive three identification strategies and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515460
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Macroeconomic effects of disruptions in global food commodity markets : evidence for the United States
De Winne, Jasmien; Peersman, Gert - 2016
commodity price shocks. Both approaches deliver similar conclusions. Specifically, an unfavorable food commodity market shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011565633
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Commodity price effects on currencies
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Wang, Wenhao - 2022
Using quarterly data on four commodity exporting countries, we study the explanatory power of real commodity prices for predicting real effective exchange rates, with special attention to the separate roles of different sectoral commodity prices during alternative time periods. We find that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013383435
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Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2017
It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754229
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The interplay between oil and food commodity prices : has it changed over time?
Peersman, Gert; Rüth, Sebastian; Van der Veken, Wouter - 2019
Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply - resulting from bad...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064355
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Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
the shock. In particular, we find that adverse shocks to Iranian oil output are neutralized in terms of their effects on … contrast, a negative shock to oil supply in Saudi Arabia leads to an immediate and permanent increase in oil prices, given that … supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
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US monetary policy in a globalized world : presented at CESifo Area Conference on Macro, Money & International Finance, February 2016
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Doppelhofer, Gernot; … - 2016
policy shock leads to a persistent fall in international output, a drop in global inflation rates, a rise in international … shock to foreign real GDP growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444866
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A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model
Chudik, Alexander; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2020
factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q … observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293790
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COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects : a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies
Milani, Fabio - 2020
This paper studies the social and economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in a large sample of countries. I stress, in particular, the importance of countries' interconnections to un-derstand the spread of the virus. I estimate a Global VAR model and exploit a dataset on existing social...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012263745
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Identifying global and national output and fiscal policy shocks using a GVAR
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2019
due to a fiscal policy shock, as compared to when the rise in output is due to a positive technology shock. The cross ….75 when the rise in output follows from a favorable output shock. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011956353