magnitude greater than the cumulative budget for operating and improving the hurricane forecast system. … the US and develop a new approach for measuring the social value of forecast improvements. We find that pre …-landfall federal protective expenditures exponentially increase with the forecast wind speed and with the degree of uncertainty about …

information. We explore several new forecasting approaches for the U.S. retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with … the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

a range of standard models and compare them to the post-CUSFTA increases observed in the data. Our results point to a … the data. …

Continental Shelf (NCS). A unique and detailed dataset containing data from 109 different fields on the NCS between 1970 and 2015 … was employed. A set of 1080 autoregressive distributed lag models are evaluated pseudo out-of-sample and tested for data …

. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial …), and (b) auto-regressive and factor-augmented Quantile Projections (QPs). We use a large database of monthly U.S. data for …

information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. -- Forecasting ; aggregation … derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive … modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by utilizing weights that minimize the variance of the out-of-sample forecast …