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Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors
Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2012
structure better than other indicators. -- leading indicators ; regional forecasting ; forecast evaluation ; forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009630640
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News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif … - 2020
-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012304069
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Real-time forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters
Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus - 2020
This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154665
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Contracting out mandatory counselling and training for long-term unemployed : private for-profit or non-profit, or keep it public?
Cockx, Bart; Baert, Stijn - 2015 - Date: October 26, 2015
This study evaluates the effectiveness of contracting out mandatory publicly provided counselling and training for long-term unemployed in Flanders (Belgium) to private for-profit and non-profit organisations (FPOs and NPOs). A multivariate transition model exploits timing-of-events and novel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376342
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In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany
Bandholz, Harm; Funke, Michael - 2001
appropriatetool for forecasting business conditions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400394
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Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany
Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one … forecasting a wide range of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we analyse to what extent its forecasting accuracy depends on the … commonly used information criteria. -- macroeconomic forecasting ; component-wise boosting ; large datasets ; variable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997
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Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle
Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2017
probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1 and a correct …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914
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READ-GER: Introducing German Real-Time Regional Accounts Data for Revision Analysis and Nowcasting
Lehmann, Robert - 2023 - This version: March 7, 2023
Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts (READ-GER). The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014232863
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Quarterly GDP estimates for the German States : new data for business cycle analyses and long-run dynamics
Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2023
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the regional database for Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013549105
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The role of the IFO business climate indicator and asset prices in German monetary policy : presented at CEFifo conference "Academic Use of ifo Survey Data", December 2003
Sterken, Elmer - 2004
We analyze the role of forward-looking indicators, like the IFO business climate indicator and asset prices, in German monetary transmission. We show that the use of both the IFO indicator and asset prices improves the performance and interpretation of a Vector AutoRegression (VAR) model of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449258