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Uncertainty and monetary policy during the great recession
Pellegrino, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Caggiano, Giovanni - 2021
real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this … estimated framework to quantify the output loss due to the large uncertainty shock that materialized in 2008Q3. We find such a … shock to be able to explain about 60% of the output loss in the 2008-2014 period. The same estimated model unveils the role …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012495676
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Switching-track after the great recession
Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar - 2021
Recession, as well as the V-shaped recoveries that followed the oil shock recessions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533939
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The crisis and regional resilience in Europe : on the importance of urbanization and specialization
Steven, Brakman; Garretsen, Harry; Marrewijk, Charles van - 2014 - This version:, March 2014
that started in 2008, as our shock and then analyze how the NUTS II EU regions differ in their resilience to the crisis in …Using a rich data set on the EU regions, we analyze the relevance of two possible determinants of a region's resilience … their resilience to shocks but it typically remains unclear as to why regions differ in this respect. For the 2008- 2012 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010337597
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Risk, intermediate input prices and missing deflation during the Great Recession
Kara, Engin; Pirzada, Ahmed Jamal - 2015
During the Great Recession, despite the large fall in output, inflation did not fall much. This is known as the missing deflation puzzle. In this paper, we develop and estimate a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to provide an explanation for the puzzle. The new model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011292980
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Different no more : country spreads in advanced and emerging economies
Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2020
Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We characterize their behavior using some 3,200 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Before the financial crisis, spreads are 10 times more volatile in emerging economies than in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012162762
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Coherence of output gaps in the euro area : the impact of the Covid-19 shock
Haan, Jakob de; Jacobs, Jan; Zijm, Renske - 2022
Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168003
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Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in booms and busts
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Figueres, Juan … - 2018
We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks originating in the US on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favor of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment in Canada is shown to react to uncertainty shocks in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862894
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Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis : evidence for the Euro Area
Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2011
This paper employs a panel vector autoregressive model for the member countries of the Euro Area to explore the role of banks during the slump of the real economy that followed the financial crisis. In particular, we seek to quantify the macroeconomic effects of adverse loan supply shocks, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009012054
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The macroeconomic policy challenges of balance sheet recession : lessons from Japan for the European crisis
Schnabl, Gunther - 2013
The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is the hysteresis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743745
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Financial uncertainty and real activity : the good, the bad, and the ugly
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Delrio, Silvia; … - 2020
disruptions are found to double the negative output response to an uncertainty shock. We then employ our model to estimate the … overall economic cost of the COVID-19-induced uncertainty shock under different scenarios. Our results point to the … interventions that keep credit conditions as healthy as they were before the COVID-19 uncertainty shock are found to substantially …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012245103