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Macro news and bond yield spreads in the Euro area
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Spagnolo, Fabio; Spagnolo, Nicola - 2014
reaction has increased during the recent financial crisis. News volatility has a significant impact on yield spread volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010417491
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Measuring market expectations
Baumeister, Christiane - 2021
Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622575
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A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes
Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Liu - 2015
We develop a non-linear forecast combination rule based on copulas that incorporate the dynamic interaction between individual predictors. This approach is optimal in the sense that the resulting combined forecast produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by the receiver operating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010475341
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The dependence structure between carbon emission allowances and financial markets : a copula analysis
Gronwald, Marc; Ketterer, Janina; Trück, Stefan - 2011
This paper applies different copulas in order to investigate the complex dependence structure between EU emission allowance (EUA) futures returns and those of other commodities, equity and energy indices. The analysis yields important insights into the relationship between carbon, commodities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011778
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Macro news and commodity returns
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Spagnolo, Fabio; Spagnolo, Nicola - 2015
Gold and Silver. Volatility spillovers are bigger in size and affect most commodity returns. Both firstand second moment … financial assets, are sensitive to macro news (especially their volatility), and also suggest that the global financial crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346863
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Connectedness between the crude oil futures and equity markets during the pre- and post-financialisation eras
Wadud, Sania; Durand, Robert B.; Gronwald, Marc - 2021
volatility, namely, seasonality and maturity effects for the pre-financialisation (1993-2003) and post-financialisation (2004 … futures' volatility before the financialisation period, open interest as a measure of liquidity has a negative effect after ….e. volatility of the contract increases as it nears to expiration since financialisation. This confirms the importance of accounting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599014
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Oil market efficiency, quantity of information, and oil market turbulence
Gronwald, Marc; Wadud, Sania; Dogah, Kingsley - 2024
This paper analyses the informational efficiency of the WTI crude oil markets using a recently proposed quantitative measure for market inefficiency. The procedure measures the extent to which observed oil price behaviour deviates from the Random Walk benchmark which represents an efficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014490913
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Frequency volatility connectedness and portfolio hedging of U.S. energy commodities
Kočenda, Evžen; Moravcová, Michala - 2024
We analyze (frequency) connectedness and portfolio hedging among U.S. energy commodities from 1997 to 2023. We show that the total connectedness increased over time, likely due to the increasing financialization of energy commodities. It fluctuates with respect to (i) different investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014456134
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Modelling volatility of cryptocurrencies using Markov-switching GARCH models
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Zekokh, Timur - 2018
This paper aims to select the best model or set of models for modelling volatility of the four most popular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882344
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Interest rate skewness and biased beliefs
Bauer, Michael D.; Chernov, Mikhail - 2021 - First draft: January 2021, this draft: June 16, 2021
Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012547050