based on proper science. The present paper explores sources of bias in the methods used to evaluate environmental policy in …

The favorite-longshot bias describes the longstanding empirical regularity that betting odds provide biased estimates … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory. -- pricing under risk ; probability … ; weighting ; compound lotteries ; favourite-longshot bias …

present bias are (not) confounded by complexity. …

This paper considers the implications of an important cognitive bias in information processing, confirmation bias, in a …, we show that when voters have this bias, it decreases pandering by the incumbent, and can raise voter welfare as a … evolution of confirmation bias can lead to more pandering before the first election. Finally, we show that when confirmation …

. This may lead to exaggerated conservatism in the voting decision (status quo bias). To investigate how complexity affects …

-intensity hurricanes, do areas governed by presidents’ co-partisans receive up to twice as many declarations. This political bias explains …