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Castelnuovo, Efrem; Tuzcuoglu, Kerem; Uzeda, Luis - 2022

We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. Our results...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013419275

Apportioning of risks via stochastic dominance

Eeckhoudt, Louis R. (contributor); … - 2008

Consider a simple two-state risk with equal probabilities for the two states. In particular, assume that the random … this way, we can extend and generalize existing results about risk attitudes. This lottery preference includes behavior … exhibiting higher order risk effects, such as precautionary effects and tempering effects. -- Downside risk ; precautionary …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003790970

Closed-form integrated assessment and uncertainty

Traeger, Christian - 2015

-form expressions of welfare loss from shocks and epistemological uncertainty identify the interaction of (intertemporal) risk attitude …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305430

On welfare frameworks and catastrophic climate risks

Millner, Antony - 2013

Recent theoretical work in the economics of climate change has suggested that climate policy is highly sensitive to "fat-tailed" risks of catastrophic outcomes (Weitzman, 2009b). Such risks are suggested to be an inevitable consequence of scientific uncertainty about the effects of increased...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199723

Export decision under risk

Sousa, José de; Disdier, Anne-Célia; Gaigné, Carl - 2016

regularities by developing a new firmbased trade model wherein managers are risk averse. Higher volatility induces the reallocation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011547934

Collective risk-taking decisions with heterogeneous beliefs

Gollier, Christian - 2003

degree of pessimism of the representative agent is the mean of the individual ones weighted by their index of absolute risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507677

Legal uncertainty as a welfare enhancing screen

Lang, Matthias - 2016

Consider legal uncertainty as uncertainty about the legality of a specific action. In particular, suppose that the threshold of legality is uncertain. I show that this legal uncertainty raises welfare. Legal uncertainty changes deterrence in opposite directions. The probability of conviction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557794

Uncertainty and fiscal policy in an asymmetric monetary union

Hefeker, Carsten (contributor); Zimmer, Blandine (contributor) - 2008

The paper examines the monetary-fiscal interactions in a monetary union model with uncertainty due to imperfect central bank transparency. We first show that monetary uncertainty disciplines fiscal policymakers and thereby reduces taxes, average inflation and output distortions. However, as more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003749682

Policy competition, imitation and coordination under uncertainty

Hefeker, Carsten - 2022

The paper analyzes under what circumstances policymakers experiment with policies with uncertain outcomes, when they prefer to imitate policies initiated in other countries, and when they prefer to coordinate policies internationally. Policymakers have private costs of active policies and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013187549

Uncertainty and information acquisition : evidence from firms and households

Mikosch, Heiner; Roth, Christopher; Sarferaz, Samad; … - 2021

We leverage the small open economy Switzerland as a testing ground for basic premises of macroeconomic models of endogenous information acquisition, using tailored surveys of firms and households. First, we show that firms perceive a greater exposure to exchange rate movements than households,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012697102

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