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Gold and Silver. Volatility spillovers are bigger in size and affect most commodity returns. Both firstand second moment … financial assets, are sensitive to macro news (especially their volatility), and also suggest that the global financial crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346863
In this paper we investigate the effects of central bank interventions (CBI) in a noise trading model with chartists and fundamentalists. We first estimate a model in which chartists extrapolate past returns and fundamentalists forecast a mean reverting dynamics of the exchange rate towards a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003113337
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information … has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566
likely the consequence of heightened informational frictions and information discovery in more globalized and financialized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064355
We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing … only if traders over- (under-) rely on public information with respect to optimal statistical weights. Both phenomena, in … uncertainty, over-reliance on public information obtains if noise trade displays low persistence. This defines a Keynesianʺ region …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897551
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003377317
It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754229
We use two approaches to examine the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in global food commodity markets. First, we embed a novel quarterly composite global production index for the four basic staples (corn, wheat, rice and soybeans) in a standard vector autoregression (VAR) model, and we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011565633
. Uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549
This paper investigates persistence in high-frequency, intraday data (and also daily and monthly ones) in the case of the EuroStoxx 50 futures over the period from 2002 to 2018 (720 million trade records) using R/S analysis and the Hurst exponent as a measure of persistence. The results indicate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013419363