Showing 1 - 10 of 1,600
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566
This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288032
There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011966739
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119530
This paper investigates the impact of oil price variations on sectoral inflation for a sample of 10 top oil importing and exporting countries. Specifically, we analyze the effects of oil prices on the consumer price index using monthly data spanning the July 2009 to February 2021 period. Two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014451998
an almost world-wide recession in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008 and by the increase in production of … strong dampening impact on the effects of prices increases on investment. We also find strong and significant negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011933936
We quantify the impact of barriers to international investment, using a novel multi-country dynamic general equilibrium … asset positions. We estimate this gravity equation using recently developed foreign investment data that have been restated … to account for offshore investment and financing vehicles. We show that a parsimonious implementation of the model with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012514947
data. We show that heterogeneity in correlations across a number of investment horizons between pairs of assets is a … in specific correlation dynamics. A strong implication emerges: during the period under research, and from a different-investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515402
We develop a dynamic multi-country trade model with foreign direct investment (FDI) in the form of non-rival technology … actual aggregate cross-section data for 89 countries in 2011 to a hypothetical world without FDI. The gains from FDI amount … to 9% of world's welfare and to 11% of world's trade, unevenly distributed among winners and losers. Net exports of FDI …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011718208