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and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation … a significant lag, whereas shocks to oil demand do not. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782040
Recently, Baumeister and Hamilton (henceforth: BH) have argued that existing studies of the global oil market fail to account for uncertainty about their identifying assumptions. They recommend an alternative econometric approach intended to address this concern by formulating priors on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882307
unconventional, puzzling or erroneous conclusions. Finally, we discuss the construction of extraneous measures of oil demand and oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174841
/1991, speculative demand shocks also played a role. Third, it is shown that temporary oil price hikes influence economic decisions that … demand shocks can emerge that to date appear to have been overlooked. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009786017
the shock. In particular, we find that adverse shocks to Iranian oil output are neutralized in terms of their effects on … contrast, a negative shock to oil supply in Saudi Arabia leads to an immediate and permanent increase in oil prices, given that … supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
and statistically significant response of income inequality to oil rent booms within 4 years of the shock. In addition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011793996
This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand … conclusion that the one-month oil supply elasticity is close to zero, which implies that oil demand shocks are the dominant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288032
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119530
The aim of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate consequences of oil-price fluctuations and to test for the dynamics of oil price volatility by examining interactions between oil market and exchange rate in selected MENA countries (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897569
In a VAR model of the US, the response of the relative price of durables to a monetary contraction is either flat or mildly positive. It significantly falls only if narrowly defined as the ratio between new house and nondurables prices. These findings survive three identification strategies and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515460