We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a … forecast errors are neither predictable nor autocorrelated. To arrive at this result, we develop a novel methodology to … environments where information processing is more costly. This results in major forecast errors that are predictable and …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …

quite rapidly with the forecast horizon, and (b) AugGVAR forecasts do as well as other data-rich forecasting techniques for … short horizons, and tend to do better for longer forecast horizons. …

the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that … nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer forecast horizons, which seems to be driven by a false assessment of the … government also deviates from the projections of the Joint Economic Forecast, which in fact worsened the forecast accuracy …

covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, while …

This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive …

forecasts are derived from non-directional forecasts and whether point forecast have predictive value when transformed into …