pesticides are generally more stringent than under autarky. As a result, trade increases the price volatility of crops produced …

. (2023) to estimate global food price mean and volatility indicators, the latter measuring uncertainty and risk in the global … volatility shocks have sizeable effects on food price inflation in all countries and persistent second-round effects on core … volatility) and their effects on core inflation to formulate appropriate policy responses. …

framework is suitable to analyse both mean and volatility spillovers, and also allows for possible parameter shifts resulting … food crisis and 2008 financial crisis leading to the most significant shifts in the (volatility) spillovers between the …

This paper shows how a world price shock can increase the likelihood that democratization must be used to resolve the … threat of revolution. Initially, a ruling elite may be able to use trade policy to maintain political stability. But a world … resolve. Because the world price shock may also reduce average incomes, the model provides a way to understand why the level …

%-30% of inflation volatility. In addition, large autonomous swings in international food prices contributed significantly to …

sector, endogenous fertility, directed technical change and fossil/renewable energy. We estimate the world economy is more … than one trillion dollars smaller, and world population more than 80 million smaller, than would have been the case without …