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We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with …-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of parameter heterogeneity. We investigate conditions under which panel …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013176894
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003620169
This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174766
This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958832
. -- Panel regression ; multiplicative measurement errors ; bias correction ; asymptotic variance ; disclosure control …The paper explores the effect of measurement errors on the estimation of a linear panel data model. The conventional … fixed effects estimator, which ignores measurement errors, is biased. By correcting for the bias one can construct …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003824983
balance sheets. The method can be applied to a wide range of panel datasets, including qualitative surveys on firm …-level forecasts or household expectations. As an application, we employ a panel of Greek manufacturing firms and quantify firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014502459
forecaster is more likely to bias the forecast associated with the policy that is (i) less likely to be selected in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014583811
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009571041
We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515377
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997