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The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables

Lütkepohl, Helmut; Fang, Xu - 2009

transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is … substantial forecasting improvements from taking logs are found if the log transformation actually stabilizes the variance of the … underlying series. Using logs can be damaging for the forecast precision if a stable variance is not achieved. -- Autoregressive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003820020

Long memory in US real output per capita

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2009

This paper analyses the long memory properties of quarterly real output per capita in the US (1948Q1 - 2008Q3) using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques. The results vary substantially depending on the methodology employed. Evidence of mean reversion is obtained in a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850276

Multi-Factor Gegenbauer processes and European inflation rates

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2009

In this paper we specify a multi-factor long-memory process that enables us to estimate the fractional differencing parameters at each frequency separately, and adopt this framework to model quarterly prices in three European countries (France, Italy and the UK). The empirical results suggest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850335

Evaluating emission trading as a policy tool : evidence from conditional jump models

Gronwald, Marc; Ketterer, Janina - 2009

This paper, first, empirically investigates European emission allowance (EUA) prices and, second, evaluates emission trading as a policy measure. Applying combined jump GARCH models yields strong evidence of conditional jump behavior. This implies that EUA prices are subject to unexpected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003854402

Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Euro Area

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Onorante, Luca; Paesani, Paolo - 2009

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003871923

The Ifo business cycle clock : circular correlation with the real GDP

Abberger, Klaus; Nierhaus, Wolfgang - 2010

The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate - business situation and business expectations - was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the Ifo Business Cycle...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008697108

US disposable personal income and housing price index : a fractional integration analysis

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2010

This paper examines the relationship between US disposable personal income (DPI) and house price index (HPI) during the last twenty years applying fractional integration and long-range dependence techniques to monthly data from January 1991 to July 2010. The empirical findings indicate that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008697849

Markov-switching and the Ifo business climate : the Ifo business cycle traffic lights

Abberger, Klaus; Nierhaus, Wolfgang - 2010

Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help of Markov Switching Models movements of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003937136

The VARying effect of foreign shocks in Central and Eastern Europe

Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca; Morales Zumaquero, Amalia; … - 2010

This paper investigates the impact of international shocks - interest rate, commodity price and industrial production shocks - on key macroeconomic variables in ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries by using near-VAR models and monthly data from the early 1990s to 2009. In contrast to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003974654

The weekly structure of US stock prices

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2010

In this paper we use fractional integration techniques to examine the degree of integration of four US stock market indices, namely the Standard and Poor, Dow Jones, Nasdaq and NYSE, at a daily frequency from January 2005 till December 2009. We analyse the weekly structure of the series and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008732289