usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …

We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency … for the presence of selective attention offer improved fitting and forecasting results. Specifically, we document a …

conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the … avenue to measure and forecast regional economic activity. …

-dimensional setting with an application to forecasting UK inflation at different horizons over the period 2020q1-2023q1. This application … paper considers ways of using high-dimensional data in forecasting. We consider selecting variables from a known active set …

How does competition affect information acquisition of firms and thus the response of inflation and output to monetary … uncertainty about inflation as a non-targeted moment. …

parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term …This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …

intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …

information. We explore several new forecasting approaches for the U.S. retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with … the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …