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How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?

Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2018

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877783

A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs

Chudik, Alexander; Grossman, Valerie; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2014

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undeter-mined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010438196

A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth

Baumeister, Christiane; Guérin, Pierre - 2020

This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306598

How do firms form expectations of aggregate growth? : new evidence from a large-scale business survey

Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena Sophia; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2020

Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that expectations are highly dispersed. The degree...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012194628

The 2020 US presidential election and Trump's trade war

Lake, James; Nie, Jun - 2022

The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the largest since the US imposed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the …. Our results highlight the political salience of the trade war: US trade war tariffs boosted Trump’s support but foreign … retaliation hurt Trump. In particular, the pro-Trump effects of US trade war tariffs were crucial for Trump crossing the recount …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013171058

State capacity, national economic policies and local development : the Russian state in the Southern Urals

Asmus, Gerda; Franck, Raphaël - 2022

This study analyzes how state capacity shapes the local impact of national policies by exploiting a quasi-natural experiment in the regional expansion of the state. It uses the local discontinuity created by the boundary of the largest peasant rebellion in 18th century Russia where the state...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938946

Aid and growth : new evidence using an excludable instrument

Dreher, Axel; Langlotz, Sarah - 2015

We use an excludable instrument to test the effect of foreign aid on economic growth in a sample of 96 recipient countries over the 1974-2009 period. We interact donor government fractionalization with a recipient country's probability of receiving aid. The results show that fractionalization...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343084

Geopolitics, aid and growth

Dreher, Axel; Eichenauer, Vera; Gehring, Kai - 2013

We investigate the effects of short-term political motivations on the effectiveness of foreign aid. Donor countries ́political motives might reduce the effectiveness of conditionality, channel aid to inferior projects or affect the way aid is spent in other ways, reduce the aid bureaucracyś...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764394

Climate change and economic activity : evidence from U.S. states

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Ng, Ryan N. C.; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2022

We investigate the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change across 48 U.S. states over the period 1963.2016 using a novel econometric strategy which links deviations of temperature and precipitation (weather) from their long-term moving-average historical norms (climate) to various...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012806494

The economic impact of weather and climate

Tol, Richard S. J. - 2021

I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I test it on a sample of 160 countries over the period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486667

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