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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003499671
Long-run restrictions have been used extensively for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR …) analysis. Such restrictions are typically just-identifying but can be checked by utilizing changes in volatility. This paper … reviews and contrasts the volatility models that have been used for this purpose. Three main approaches have been used …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010249640
A growing literature uses changes in residual volatility for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive … (VAR) analysis. A number of different models for heteroskedasticity or conditional heteroskedasticity are proposed and used … in applications in this context. This study reviews the different volatility models and points out their advantages and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509631
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003364334
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. Our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013419275
line with theory, induce a negative nowcast error but raise economic activity in the short run. They account for up to 30 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224834
. We document two new facts using VAR methods. First, a (positive) shock to future TFP generates a significant decline in …, VAR methods also establish a tight link between TFP news shocks and shocks that explain the majority of un …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012373126
stress). Working with a VAR framework and a set-identification strategy which focuses on - but it is not limited to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012245103
We identify total factor productivity (TFP) news shocks using standard VAR methodology and document a new stylized fact …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213178
Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003966437