The 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the...

We investigate regime-dependent Granger causality between real output, inflation and monetary indicators and map with U.S. Fed Chairperson's tenure since 1965. While all monetary indicators have causal predictive content in certain time periods, we report that the Federal Funds rate (FFR) and...

We assess the impact of China's bilateral political relations with three main trading partners-the US, Germany, and the UK-on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1-2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we find...

Using bootstrap panel analysis, allowing for cross-country correlation, without the need of pre-testing for unit roots, we study the causality between government spending and revenue for the EU in the period 1960-2006. We find spend-and-tax causality for Italy, France, Spain, Greece, and...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate consequences of oil-price fluctuations and to test for the dynamics of oil price volatility by examining interactions between oil market and exchange rate in selected MENA countries (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia,...