Showing 1 - 10 of 504
We present a simple approach to transform a deterministic numerical model, where several agents simultaneously make decisions, into a stochastic model. This approach, which builds on scenario aggregation, a numerical method developed to solve decision problems under uncertainty, is used to build...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010212655
We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119860
Loss aversion is one of the most widely used concepts in behavioral economics. We conduct a large-scale interdisciplinary meta-analysis, to systematically accumulate knowledge from numerous empirical estimates of the loss aversion coefficient reported during the past couple of decades. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418622
Environmental managers face substantial uncertainty when deciding on management actions. To reduce this uncertainty prior to decision-making, collecting new data may help arrive at more informed decisions. Whether any resulting improvement in the decision will outweigh the cost of collecting the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014228294
We study the influence of reason and intuition on decision making over time. Facing a sequence of similar problems, agents can either decide rationally according to expected utility theory or intuitively according to case-based decision theory. Rational decisions are more precise but create...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010464891
proposing a novel news media-based measure of climate change transition risk and show that when such risk is high, major …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391358
The argument that policy risk, i.e., uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009772961
Experimental studies of the WTP-WTA gap avoid social trading by implementing an incentive compatible mechanism for each individual trader. We compare a traditional random price mechanism and a novel elicitation mechanism preserving social trading, without sacrificing mutual incentive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229862
explore the design of policy. The model highlights the critical roles played by (i) the relationship between behavioural risk … preferences, standard risk aversion and labour supply behaviour, (ii) the risk properties of education, and (iii) the degree of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010467858
social context affected risk-taking behavior. Remotely, pairs take far fewer risks when the stakes are high than in the flesh …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013440406