transforms can be manipulated by changing the order of variables in the forecasting model. We derive order invariant tests. The …

appropriatetool for forecasting business conditions. …

money balances, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two … long run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation … significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the …

to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing … loss ; leading indicators ; euro area ; forecasting …

structure better than other indicators. -- leading indicators ; regional forecasting ; forecast evaluation ; forecast …

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide … high macroeconomic uncertainty. -- monetary policy ; Taylor rule ; real-time data ; great moderation ; forecasting …

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one … forecasting a wide range of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we analyse to what extent its forecasting accuracy depends on the … commonly used information criteria. -- macroeconomic forecasting ; component-wise boosting ; large datasets ; variable …