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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763
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Measuring uncertainty of a combined forecast and some tests for forecaster heterogeneity
Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2015
We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305389
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Measuring uncertainty of a combined forecast and some tests for forecaster heterogeneity
Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2020
uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405456
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Predictability of bull and bear markets : a new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416151
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Seven pitfalls of technical analysis
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2023
This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489574
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Collusion by algorithm: the role of unobserved actions
Martin, Simon; Rasch, Alexander - 2022
We analyze the effects of better algorithmic demand forecasting on collusive profits. We show that the comparative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093034
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Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? : a quantitative prediction of Its effects
Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; … - 2020
Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206629
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Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2016
the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580
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Tariffs, trade and productivity : a quantitative evaluation of heterogeneous firm models
Breinlich, Holger; Cuñat, Alejandro - 2013
We examine the quantitative predictions of heterogeneous firm models à la Melitz (2003) in the context of the Canada - US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989. We compute predicted increases in trade flows and measured productivity across a range of standard models and compare them to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009773860
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The predictive power of political pundits : prescient or pitiful?
Metaxas, Phillip; Leigh, Andrew - 2013
Although Australian political pundits frequently make predictions about the future, little systematic evidence exists on the accuracy of these predictions. To assess the predictive power of experts, we survey the transcripts of two well-known political programs - Insiders and Meet the Press -...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009748356