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common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial … production series for the US economy. Our results indicate that common uncertainty and uncertainty linked to nondurable goods … both recorded their pre-pandemic global peaks during the 1973-75 recession. In contrast, durable goods uncertainty recorded …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013419275
-form expressions of welfare loss from shocks and epistemological uncertainty identify the interaction of (intertemporal) risk attitude … is comparable to numeric models used in policy advising. Uncertainty surrounding climate change remains large. The closed …, distributional moments, and the climatic shadow values. Welfare gains from reducing uncertainty about temperature feedbacks are much …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305430
scientific uncertainty about the effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on climate. Criticisms of this controversial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199723
choice deviate from what citizens want but that an increase in uncertainty about policy outcomes decreases this distortion. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013187549
acquiring or processing information acquire less information. Finally, an exogenous increase in the perceived uncertainty of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012697102
In this paper we offer an analysis of the effects of uncertainty about future tax policy on irreversible investment …. The main message of the paper is that investment is not much affected by the degreee of tax policy uncertainty. This is … that reducing tax policy uncertainty is probably no magic bullet to increase private investment spending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781588
-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated … informed. Moreover, young firms tend to wait long before entering or exiting the market faced with high uncertainty about their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258487
) to estimate forecast uncertainty, shocks and discord using information framework, and compare these with moment … ex ante "news" or "uncertainty shocks" in real time, and find that this 'news' is closely related to revisions in … forecast means, countercyclical, and raises uncertainty. Using standard vector auto-regression analysis, we confirm that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012024647
and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and … show that uncertainty not only determines the type of cooperative policy but also whether countries want to cooperate at … all. Countries facing larger model disagreement also need to face larger uncertainty with respect to policy spillovers to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011966668
-specific) uncertainty and offers ten main takeaways. The second part reviews contributions on the fast-growing strand of the literature … focusing on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty spillovers and global uncertainty. The last part proposes a novel measure … of global financial uncertainty and shows that its unexpected variations are associated to statistically and economically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119543