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Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply - resulting from bad...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064355
Gold and Silver. Volatility spillovers are bigger in size and affect most commodity returns. Both firstand second moment … financial assets, are sensitive to macro news (especially their volatility), and also suggest that the global financial crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346863
In this paper we investigate the time-varying relationship between oil and natural gas in the UK. We develop a model where relative prices can move between pricing-regimes; markets switch between being decoupled and integrated. Our model endogenously accounts for periods where oil and natural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010212645
that divergence in monetary policy regimes affects forex volatility spillovers but that adding oil to a forex portfolio … shocks dominate forex volatility connectedness, positive shocks prevail when oil and forex markets are assessed jointly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012035050
This paper analyses the informational efficiency of the WTI crude oil markets using a recently proposed quantitative measure for market inefficiency. The procedure measures the extent to which observed oil price behaviour deviates from the Random Walk benchmark which represents an efficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014490913
It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754229
revenues when managed appropriately are a blessing, but their volatility (which in Iran is much higher than oil price … volatility) can have adverse effects on real output, through excessively high and persistent levels of inflation. Lack of … appropriate institutions and policy mechanisms which act as shock absorbers in the face of high levels of oil revenue volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009707616
We study the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033337
This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288032
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119530