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Forecasting random walks under drift instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763

Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009

direct forecasts when estimation error is a first-order concern, i.e. in small samples and for long forecast horizons …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807908

Cointegration analysis with mixed-frequency data

Seong, Byeongchan (contributor); Ahn, Sung K. (contributor); … - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003496561

Robust implementation of a parsimonious dynamic factor model to nowcast GDP

Duarte, Pablo; Süssmuth, Bernd - 2014

Quarterly GDP figures usually are published with a delay of some weeks. A common way to generate GDP series of higher frequency, i.e. to nowcast GDP, is to use available indicators to calculate a single index by means of a common factor derived from a dynamic factor model (DFM). This paper deals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229863

Real-time forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters

Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus - 2020

relative to expert forecasts and show that the MFTVP- SV-VAR delivers better inflation nowcasts in this regard. Using an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154665

Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000

intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626

Variable selection and forecasting in high dimensional linear regressions with structural breaks

Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Sharifvaghefi, Mahrad - 2020

This paper is concerned with problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows or exponential down-weighting. However, these studies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258549

Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle

Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2017

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914

Imputing monthly values for quarterly time series : an application performed with Swiss business cycle data

Abberger, Klaus; Graff, Michael; Müller, Oliver; … - 2022

This paper documents a comparative application of algorithms to deal with the problem of missing values in higher frequency data sets. We refer to Swiss business tendency survey (BTS) data which are conducted in both monthly and quarterly frequency, where an information sub-set is collected at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013482570

Pandemic-era inflation drivers and global spillovers

Di Giovanni, Julian; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Silva, Álvaro - 2023

We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020 …–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices … and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014434281

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