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Different no more : country spreads in advanced and emerging economies
Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2020
Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We characterize their behavior using some 3,200 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Before the financial crisis, spreads are 10 times more volatile in emerging economies than in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012162762
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The G7 business cycle in a globalized world
Carstensen, Kai; Salzmann, Leonard - 2016
, and inflation volatility, and in global macroeconomic indicators like the oil price, world stock market returns, and … exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that in a globalized world spillovers from emerging markets and industrial … countries other than the G7 play a relevant role for major aspects of the G7 and world business cycle. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499802
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Coherence of output gaps in the euro area : the impact of the Covid-19 shock
Haan, Jakob de; Jacobs, Jan; Zijm, Renske - 2022
Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168003
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A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model
Chudik, Alexander; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2020
observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293790
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Fiscal adjustments and business cycle synchronization
Agnello, Luca; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Sousa, Ricardo M. - 2013
Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010212384
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Animal spirits and the international transmission of business cycles : presented at CESifo Area Conference on Macro, Money & International Finance, February 2016
De Grauwe, Paul; Ji, Yuemei - 2016
It is well-known that the high synchronization of the business cycles among industrial countries cannot easily be replicated in standard open economy macroeconomic models without assuming that the exogenous shocks hitting these countries are highly correlated. We develop a two-country behavioral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444133
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Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises in output
Ridder, Maarten de - 2016
This paper analyzes the channels through which financial crises exert long-term negative effects on output. Recent models suggest that a shortfall in productivity-enhancing investments temporarily slows technological progress, creating a gap between pre-crisis trend and actual GDP. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573282
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The falling elasticity of global trade to economic activity : testing the demand channel
Auboin, Marc; Borino, Floriana - 2018
structural or cyclical. Some papers emphasized the slowing pace of international vertical specialization. Other works emphasized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900772
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Hong Kong output dynamics : an empirical analysis
Cheung, Yin-Wong - 2001
Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the U.S. are found to share some common long-term and short-term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger-caused by the other two economies,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398863
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Is there a European business cycle?
Artis, Michael J. - 2003
The paper uses quarterly GDP data for some 30 years up to and including 2001, to examine the identity and development of the European business cycle. Cycles are identified by using a band-pass filter version of the Hodrick-Prescott filter and affiliations are examined using clustering techniques...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011509523