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Financial fragility, bubbles and monetary policy

Illing, Gerhard - 2001

The paper models the links between financial fragility, asset markets and monetary policy. It is shown that central bank's concern about the cost of financial disruption generates an asymmetric response, thus contributing to the creation of an asset price bubble. In an economy with a highly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398119

Seven pitfalls of technical analysis

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2023

This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489574

Predictability of bull and bear markets : a new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US

Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416151

Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626

A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566

Bubbles in hybrid markets : how expectations about algorithmic trading affect human trading

Farjam, Mike; Kirchkamp, Oliver - 2015

Bubbles are omnipresent in lab experiments with asset markets. Most of these experiments were conducted in environments … smaller bubbles if human traders expect algorithmic traders to be present. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392621

Market depth, leverage, and speculative bubbles

Enders, Zeno; Hakenes, Hendrik - 2017

We develop a model of rational bubbles based on leverage and the assumption of an imprecisely known maximum market size … lend to traders with limited liability in a bubble is endogenous. Bubbles reduce welfare of future investors. We provide … general conditions for the possibility of bubbles depending on uncertainty about market size, traders' degree of leverage and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780495

Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news

Born, Benjamin; Dovern, Jonas; Enders, Zeno - 2020

Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549

Was Bernanke right? : targeting asset prices may not be a good Idea after all

Assenza, Tiziana; Berardi, Michele; Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2011

Should the central bank prevent "excessive" asset price dynamics or should it wait until the boom spontaneously turns into a crash and intervene only afterwards? The debate over this issue goes back at least to the exchange between Bernanke-Gertler (BG) and Cecchetti but has not settled yet. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009377794

Financial cycles, credit bubbles and stabilization policies

Corrado, Luisa; Schuler, Tobias - 2018

This paper analyzes the effects of several policy instruments to mitigate financial bubbles generated in the banking … policy instruments in counteracting financial bubbles. We find that an endogenous capital requirement reduces the impact of a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011952012