parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term …This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …

intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …

conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the … avenue to measure and forecast regional economic activity. …

beyond one year do not have any additional impact on forecasts. Exogenous variation in inflation expectations transmits into …We compare the causal effects of forward guidance communication about future interest rates on households' expectations … of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized …

primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive … observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that … information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt …

This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent … the oil market - predicts oil prices more accurately compared to all methods evaluated up to 11 quarters ahead and …

The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline … price shocks may indeed drive one-year household inflation expectations. The model shows that there have been several such … episodes since 1990. In particular, the rise in household inflation expectations between 2009 and 2013 is almost entirely …