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Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
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Global cycles : capital flows, commodities, and sovereign defaults, 1815-2015
Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Trebesch, Christoph - 2016 - This draft: January 13, 2016
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421571
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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
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The G7 business cycle in a globalized world
Carstensen, Kai; Salzmann, Leonard - 2016
, and inflation volatility, and in global macroeconomic indicators like the oil price, world stock market returns, and … exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that in a globalized world spillovers from emerging markets and industrial … countries other than the G7 play a relevant role for major aspects of the G7 and world business cycle. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499802
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Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2017
It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754229
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Measuring global real economic activity : do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958840
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Liberalization and stock market co-movement between emerging economies
Beine, Michel (contributor); Candelon, Bertrand (contributor) - 2007
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003620171
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It's a big world after all
Brakman, Steven (contributor);  … - 2007
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003496820
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A touch of sophistication : FDI and unit values of exports
Harding, Torfinn; Javorcik, Beata K. Smarzynska - 2009
The debate on trade and growth increasingly focuses on the composition of exports. Exports of more "sophisticated" products appear to be positively correlated with growth, and upgrading the quality of exports is high on the policy agenda of many countries. This study presents evidence suggesting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003922581
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The great divergence : a network approach
Lindner, Ines; Strulik, Holger - 2015
knowledge throughout the world explains a period of increasing world inequality after the take-off of the forerunners of the … industrial revolution, followed by decreasing relative inequality. Knowledge diffusion through a Small World network explains the … individual countries in the course of world development. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011397182