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Optimal epidemic suppression under an ICU constraint

Miclo, Laurent; Spiro, Daniel; Weibull, Jörgen W. - 2020

during an epidemic? We study a setting where ICU resources are constrained while suppression is costly (e.g., limiting … suppression measures are continuously taken to hold down the spread throughout the epidemic, is suboptimal. Instead, the optimal … suppression is discountinuous. The epidemic should be left unregulated in a first phase and when the ICU constraint is approaching …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219144

Optimally controlling an epidemic

Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín; Niepelt, Dirk - 2020

We propose a flexible model of infectious dynamics with a single endogenous state variable and economic choices. We characterize equilibrium, optimal outcomes, static and dynamic externalities, and prove the following: (i) A lockdown generically is followed by policies to stimulate activity....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012388160

The economic impacts of a pandemic : what happened after SARS in 2003?

Nguyen Doan; Nguyen Phuc Canh; Noy, Ilan; Sawada, Yasuyuki - 2020

This study quantifies the economic impacts of SARS on the four affected Asian economies and the two most affected Chinese regions using synthetic control methods with macroeconomic and remote-sensing nightlight data. For the four affected economies (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore), we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012312227

V for vaccines and variants

Delli Gatti, Domenico; Reissl, Severin; Turco, Enrico - 2021

) to evaluate the effects of vaccinations and variants on the epidemic and macroeconomic outlook. Vaccination plays the …, increasing the volatility of epidemic curves and worsening the macroeconomic outlook. If a more contagious variant emerges after …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012619411

Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? : a quantitative prediction of Its effects

Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; … - 2020

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206629

Measuring the economic risk of COVID-19

Noy, Ilan; Nguyen Doan; Ferrarini, Benno; Park, Donghyun - 2020

, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of the epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012231556

The geographic spread of COVID-19 correlates with structure of social networks as measured by Facebook

Kuchler, Theresa; Russel, Dominic; Stroebel, Johannes - 2020

We use anonymized and aggregated data from Facebook to show that areas with stronger social ties to two early COVID-19 “hotspots” (Westchester County, NY, in the U.S. and Lodi province in Italy) generally have more confirmed COVID-19 cases as of March 30, 2020. These relationships hold after...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206624

How do pandemics end? : two decades of recurrent outbreak risk following the main waves

Schroeder, Max; Lazarakis, Spyridon; Mancy, Rebecca; … - 2021

The risk of recurrent outbreaks following the main waves of a pandemic has been acknowledged. We provide evidence of the scale and duration of this outbreak risk. We compile municipal public health records and use national data to model the stochastic process of mortality rates after the main...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012698777

An old plug and a new virus : effect of public corruption on the Covid-19 immunization progress

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Hofmann, Hans Philipp - 2021

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has resulted in the death of over four million people since late 2019. To …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622723

How did the 2003 SARS epidemic shape Chinese trade?

Fernandes, Ana; Tang, Heiwai - 2020

This paper examines the impact of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic on China’s trade. Using …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219530