Showing 1 - 10 of 242
This paper addresses the steep learning curve in Machine Learning faced by non-computer scientists, particularly social … adage ”once you understand OLS, you can work your way up to any other estimator,” and apply it to Machine Learning. Focusing … and fire some trailblazers to the forefront of AI and causal machine learning. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015070152
Attention is a pivotal resource in the modern economy and plays an increasingly prominent role in economic analysis. We summarize research on attention from both psychology and economics, placing a particular emphasis on its capacity to explain numerous documented violations of classical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014383940
Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on U.S. GDP,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012304069
How damaging are uncertainty shocks during extreme events such as the great recession and the Covid-19 outbreak? Can monetary policy limit output losses in such situations? We use a nonlinear VAR framework to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288020
antibiotic misuse, a leading driver of antibiotic resistance. We train a machine learning algorithm on administrative and … until test results are known and give them instantly to others. We find that machine learning can reduce antibiotic use by 7 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022285
challenges for the evaluation of whether and how machine learning predictions can improve decision outcomes. We propose a … framework that incorporates machine learning on large-scale administrative data into a choice model featuring heterogeneity in … learning predictions with physician diagnostic skill achieves a 25.4 percent reduction in prescribing and the largest welfare …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012315943
infinite-horizon learning, and subjective expectations with Euler-equation learning. Under rational expectations, the model … necessitates of large, possibly unrealistically so, degrees of myopia. The same result persists under infinite-horizon learning …, given that agents are still remarkably far-sighted. But, under Euler-equation learning, the model can fit the data with only …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012509319
The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the … macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the … sentiment, defined as the degrees of excess optimism and pessimism that cannot be justified by the near-rational learning model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226634
We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or after infection but without symptoms and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012194675
This paper assesses the impact of US policy responses to the Covid-19 pandemic on various cryptocurrencies and also technology stocks using fractional integration techniques. More precisely, it analyses the behaviour of the percentage returns in the case of nine major coins (Bitcoin - BITC,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013041344