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The 2020 US presidential election and Trump's trade war
Lake, James; Nie, Jun - 2022
The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the largest since the US imposed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the …. Our results highlight the political salience of the trade war: US trade war tariffs boosted Trump’s support but foreign … retaliation hurt Trump. In particular, the pro-Trump effects of US trade war tariffs were crucial for Trump crossing the recount …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013171058
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On the linkages between stock prices and exchange rates : evidence from the banking crisis of 2007-2010
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Hunter, John; Ali, Faek Menla - 2013
This study examines the nature of the linkages between stock market prices and exchange rates in six advanced economies, namely the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, the euro area, and Switzerland, using data on the banking crisis between 2007 and 2010. Bivariate GARCH-BEKK models are estimated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009727058
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Stock markets, banks and long run economics growth : a panel cointegration-based analysis
Cavenaile, Laurent; Gengenbach, Christian; Palm, Franz C. - 2013
The aim of this paper is to investigate the long run relationship between the development of banks and stock markets and economic growth. We make use of a Johansen-based panel cointegration methodology allowing for cross-country dependence to test the number of cointegrating vectors among these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010223077
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Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets
Baumöhl, Eduard; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, Štefan; … - 2017
In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during 2006-2014, we describe and model volatility spillovers during global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011654569
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Determinants of stock market correlations : accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality in a large panel setting
Afonso, António; Beck, Krzysztof; Jackson, Karen - 2022
We examine 22 determinants of stock market correlations in a panel setting with 651 country pairs of developed economies over the 2001-2018 period, while accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality. On the one hand, we find, that a number of determinants, well established in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013380503
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Did COVID-19 cost Trump the election?
Lake, James; Nie, Jun - 2021
A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. We do not find supporting evidence; if anything, the … pandemic helped Trump. However, we find substantial evidence that voters abandoned Trump in counties with large increases in … effect, our estimates imply Trump would been on the precipice of re-election by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and only …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421123
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Did Trump's trade war impact the 2018 election?
Blanchard, Emily J.; Bown, Chad P.; Chor, Davin - 2020
We find that Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293757
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Tariffs and politics : evidence from Trump's trade wars
Fetzer, Thiemo; Schwarz, Carlo - 2019
these questions. We find substantial evidence that retaliation was directly targeted to areas that swung to Donald Trump in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011986148
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What do we really know about the transatlantic current account?
Braml, Martin T.; Felbermayr, Gabriel - 2019
Do the U.S. have a current account surplus or a deficit with the EU? Since 2009, official sources disagree: The U.S. Department of Commerce claims a consistent U.S. surplus while Eurostat reports the opposite. International transactions are notoriously difficult to measure accurately, but the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012065058
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Who pays for the tariffs and why? : a tale of two countries
Feng, Chaonan; Han, Liyan; Li, Lei - 2023
During the U.S.-China trade war, the U.S. punitive tariffs were almost entirely borne by U.S. importers. In contrast, only 68% of China's retaliatory tariffs were paid by Chinese importers. The puzzling difference between the U.S. and China is mainly driven by their different import structures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014293293