real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR with time-varying parameters. We use it to calculate the probability …

worth, the evaporation of liquidity and rising risk premia are the key channels through which geopolitical uncertainty …

find a quarter of students violated the order. Yet, neither risk preference, altruism, nor preexisting health conditions …

The risk of recurrent outbreaks following the main waves of a pandemic has been acknowledged. We provide evidence of … the scale and duration of this outbreak risk. We compile municipal public health records and use national data to model … eight major UK cities, we find elevated mortality risk that persists for nearly two decades. The generality of the findings …

We measure the economic risk of COVID-19 at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the current … prevalence of confirmed cases, we use data from 2014-2018 and a conceptual disaster risk model to compute measures for exposure ….e., its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of this pandemic is particularly high …