We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

Using data from the US automobile market, we empirically examine the link between competition and innovation … interesting market to examine the link between competition and innovation. We use firm-level time-series data over a long horizon … relationship is reasonably non-linear; (2) higher market-wide competition results in an increase in patenting, and the relationship …

of winning and losing in a competition on the willingness to seek further challenges. Participants in a lab experiment … compete in two-person tournaments and are then informed of their score and the outcome of the competition. Conditional on the …

competition by a competitive fringe that produces low quality. We show that the brand manufacturer optimally provides a decoy good …

products’ attractiveness and endogenous competition. The model is motivated by two novel stylized facts using Danish … feature the toughest competition. Depending on the strength of competition, two sorting patterns are possible: one in which … quantifying our model, we find that product-specific differences in attractiveness and competition explain a quarter of the …