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Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations : evidence from a global survey experiment
Boumans, Dorine; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; … - 2022
Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013383634
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Protectionism and economic growth : causal evidence from the first era of globalization
Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian; Wüthrich, Kaspar - 2020
We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. We employ the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012387616
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The role of electoral incentives for policy innovation : evidence from the U.S. welfare reform
Bernecker, Andreas; Boyer, Pierre C.; Gathmann, Christina - 2018 - This version: March 19, 2018
We investigate whether the decision to experiment with novel policies is influenced by electoral incentives. Our empirical setting is the U.S. welfare reform in 1996, which marked the most dramatic shift in social policy since the New Deal. We find that electoral incentives matter: governors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011814867
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Gender differences in political career progression : evidence from U.S. elections
Brown, Ryan; Mansour, Hani; O'Connell, Stephen D.; … - 2019
This paper establishes the presence of a substantial gender gap in the relationship between state legislature service and the subsequent pursuit of a Congressional career. The empirical approach uses a sample of mixed-gender elections to compare the differential political career progression of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064423
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Fact-checking politicians
Mattozzi, Andrea; Nocito, Samuel; Sobbrio, Francesco - 2022
-checking company. Our results show that politicians are responsive to negative fact-checking. Specifically, we observe a significative … reduction in the number of incorrect statements made by politicians after being treated. This effect persists for at least two … months. We also observe a reduction in the probability of politicians making verifiable statements, suggesting that fact …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013463503
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Explaining inequality between countries : the declining role of political institutions
Hussey, Andrew; Jetter, Michael; McWilliam, Dianne - 2017
countries (representing 85 percent of the world population) from 1960-2012. Since 1988, inequality has marginally decreased …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011597855
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Identifying the effects of place-based policies : causal evidence from German
Dettmann, Eva; Brachert, Matthias; Titze, Mirko - 2016
The German government provides discretionary investment grants to structurally weak regions to reduce regional disparities. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits an exogenous discrete jump in the probability of receiving investment grants, to identify the causal effects of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475960
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Instrumental variables and causal mechanisms : unpacking the effect of trade on workers and voters
Dippel, Christian; Gold, Robert; Heblich, Stephan; … - 2017
This paper shows that import exposure affects voting behavior because it affects local labor markets. We develop a new framework for mediation analysis where one instrumental variable is sufficient to identify three causal effects. Using German data from 1987-2009, we find that import exposure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011781026
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The right look : conservative politicians look better than their voters reward it
Berggren, Niclas; Jordahl, Henrik; Poutvaara, Panu - 2010
Previous research has established that good-looking political candidates win more votes. We extend this line of research by examining differences between parties on the left and on the right of the political spectrum. Our study combines data on personal votes in real elections with a web survey...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008808225
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Pay for politicians and candidate selection : an empirical analysis
Kotakorpi, Kaisa; Poutvaara, Panu - 2010
A growing theoretical literature on the effect of politicians' salaries on the average level of skills of political … candidates yields ambiguous predictions. In this paper, we estimate the effect of pay for politicians on the level of education … politicians ; candidate selection ; gender differences in politics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003986878