intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …

relative to expert forecasts and show that the MFTVP- SV-VAR delivers better inflation nowcasts in this regard. Using an …

accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP inflation. We consider BVAR averaging, Bayesian factor augmented VARs (BFAVARs … optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

with simulations. Two examples based on European unemployment and inflation series are used to illustrate the virtue of the …

affect inflation. Likewise, the interaction between central bank independence and coordination does not affect unemployment. …

We present new empirical evidence for the US economy that inflation reduces the inequality of the earnings distribution … higher inflation on income distribution is shown to be rather small. However, we find that a longer duration between two …