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The 2020 US presidential election and Trump's trade war
Lake, James; Nie, Jun - 2022
The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the largest since the US imposed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the 1930s and was still raging when he left office. We analyze how the trade war impacted the 2020 US Presidential election. Our results highlight the political salience of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013171058
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Did Trump's trade war impact the 2018 election?
Blanchard, Emily J.; Bown, Chad P.; Chor, Davin - 2020
We find that Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293757
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Did COVID-19 cost Trump the election?
Lake, James; Nie, Jun - 2021
A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. We do not find supporting evidence; if anything, the pandemic helped Trump. However, we find substantial evidence that voters abandoned Trump in counties with large increases in health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421123
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Trade retaliation in a monetary-trade model
Whalley, John; Yu, Jun; Zhang, Shunming - 2009
. We calibrate such a model to China’s trade with the rest of the world and explore two country tariff games using 2005 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003806727
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Tariffs and politics : evidence from Trump's trade wars
Fetzer, Thiemo; Schwarz, Carlo - 2019
escalation between the US, China, the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries to answer … was optimally chosen using a novel simulation approach constructing counterfactual retaliation responses. For China and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011986148
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The smoot-hawley trade war
Mitchener, Kris; Wandschneider, Kirsten; O'Rourke, … - 2021
We document the outbreak of a trade war after the U.S. adopted the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930. U.S. trade partners initially protested the possible implementation of the sweeping tariff legislation, with many eventually choosing to retaliate by increasing their tariffs on imports from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012491602
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The US-China trade war and the relocation of global value chains to Mexico
Utar, Hâle; Zurita, Alfonso Cebreros; Torres Ruiz, … - 2023
Did the 2018/19 US-China trade war trigger adjustment of Global Value Chains (GVCs) and nearshoring to Mexico? We … domestic activities in Mexico. However, we also document a negative impact of the retaliatory tariffs of China, primarily … affecting export services and a counterbalancing negative effect of the US tariffs via GVC firms' inputs from China …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014340112
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The changing macroeconomic response to stock market volatility shocks
Beetsma, Roel; Giuliodori, Massimo - 2011 - This version: 14 November 2011
There is substantial consensus in the literature that positive uncertainty shocks predict a slowdown of economic activity. However, using U.S. data since 1950 we show that the macroeconomic response pattern to stock market volatility shocks has changed substantially over time. The negative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009380407
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Exponent of cross-sectional dependence : estimation and inference
Bailey, Natalia; Kapetanios, George; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2012
An important issue in the analysis of cross-sectional dependence which has received renewed interest in the past few years is the need for a better understanding of the extent and nature of such cross dependencies. In this paper we focus on measures of cross-sectional dependence and how such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009488893
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The impact of containment measures and monetary and fiscal responses on US financial markets during the Covid-19 pandemic
Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; … - 2021
This paper analyses the effects of containment measures and monetary and fiscal responses on US financial markets during the Covid-19 pandemic. More specifically, it applies fractional integration methods to analyse their impact on the daily S&P500, the US Treasury Bond Index (USTB), the S&P...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584220