We use two approaches to examine the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in global food commodity markets. First …) in a standard vector autoregression (VAR) model, and we estimate the dynamic effects of global food commodity supply … shocks on the US economy. As an alternative, we also estimate the consequences of thirteen narratively identified global food …

This paper studies the relationship between export policy and food prices. We show that, when individuals are loss … averse, food exporters may use trade policy to shield the domestic economy from large price shocks. This creates a … complementarity between the price of food in international markets and export policy. Specifically, unilateral actions by exporting …

. (2023) to estimate global food price mean and volatility indicators, the latter measuring uncertainty and risk in the global … food market. Both are then included in structural VAR models to examine their effects on domestic food price inflation for … a range of countries with different food shares in total consumption and in the CPI basket. Next, counterfactual …

We study how precipitation has affected food consumer price inflation (CPI), using dynamic panel estimation of food CPI …. We allow for nonlinear effects of precipitation on food CPI inflation, and also control for possible nonlinear effects of … temperature. We find that precipitation has significant nonlinear effects on food CPI inflation. The coefficient of food CPI …

unfavorable harvest shocks in other regions of the world significantly curtail domestic economic activity. The effects are much …, despite the lower shares of food in household expenditures these countries have compared to low-income countries. On the other …

dictatorial regimes' rebuttal of World Bank calls to keep their export markets open in the face of the 2007 - 08 world food crisis. …This paper shows how a world price shock can increase the likelihood that democratization must be used to resolve the … threat of revolution. Initially, a ruling elite may be able to use trade policy to maintain political stability. But a world …

Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity … global food commodity supply - resulting from bad harvests - have positive effects on crude oil prices since the early 2000s …

This paper examines the causal effects of shifts in international food commodity prices on euro area inflation dynamics … results reveal that exogenous food commodity price shocks have a strong impact on consumer prices, explaining on average 25 …%-30% of inflation volatility. In addition, large autonomous swings in international food prices contributed significantly to …