year of a gubernatorial election, the elasticity of investment to the eventual margin of victory is 0.027. Both the …

, particularly among those who had expressed an intention to vote for Donald Trump. We also find that micro-targeted ads reduced … turnout among targeted liberals, whereas they increased turnout and support for Trump among targeted moderates. …

elections. We study this intervention in light of a model where incumbents benefit from a first-mover and valence advantage …

In this paper we study the link between elections, fiscal policy and economic growth/fluctuations. The set-up is a … uncertain prospects of re-election, find it optimal to follow relatively shortsighted fiscal policies, and that this lowers …

A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. We do not find supporting evidence; if anything, the … effect, our estimates imply Trump would been on the precipice of re-election by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and only … pandemic helped Trump. However, we find substantial evidence that voters abandoned Trump in counties with large increases in …

and the subsequent pursuit of a Congressional career. The empirical approach uses a sample of mixed-gender elections to … election relative to an analogous impact for men who closely win or lose a state legislature election. We find that the effect …

2008 US presidential election, the first political campaign where the internet played a key role. Drawing on data from the …

probability before the election (Maskin and Tirole's "feedback" case). In the three-period case, with two elections, the dynamic … political agency setting. In the baseline two-period case where only the politician's actions are observable before the election … evolution of confirmation bias can lead to more pandering before the first election. Finally, we show that when confirmation …