Showing 1 - 10 of 377
-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012304069
nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306598
Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026466
paper gives a literature overview over existing studies that deal with the forecasting power of various ifo indicators both … powerful tool both for an in-depth business cycle diagnosis and for applied forecasting work. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219339
sentiment indexes from the texts of the most read economic newspapers in Spain. The data are collected through the scraping of … the Digital Periodical and Newspaper Library website. To compute the sentiment, an existing emotional lexicon for Spanish … words has been customized, allowing for inferring sentiment for words in texts. The resulting indexes are later compared to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013453734
This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154665
conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
Model specification and selection are recurring themes in econometric analysis. Both topics become considerably more complicated in the case of large-dimensional data sets where the set of specification possibilities can become quite large. In the context of linear regression models, penalised...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444508
Since 1990 the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) uses a leading indicator in preparing short-term forecasts for the Dutch economy. This paper describes some recent methodological innovations as well as the current structure and empirical results of the revised CPB leading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449119
to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing … loss ; leading indicators ; euro area ; forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008653414