relative to expert forecasts and show that the MFTVP- SV-VAR delivers better inflation nowcasts in this regard. Using an …

This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order … ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the cycle the estimation of the output gap is much more precise and …

multiple regimes. We outline the theoretical foundations of model estimation, provide the details of two families of powerful …

This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that … evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively … stable following the Bretton Woods period, despite the adoption of different monetary regimes. The estimation of an …

little evidence for them. We argue that this outcome could be due to episodic failure of cointegration, possible two …