Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 664
Cover Image
A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs
Chudik, Alexander; Grossman, Valerie; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2014
This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undeter-mined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010438196
Cover Image
Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany
Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997
Cover Image
A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth
Baumeister, Christiane; Guérin, Pierre - 2020
This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306598
Cover Image
Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data
Garnitz, Johanna; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2019
Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026466
Cover Image
Nowcasting regional GDP : the case of the Free State of Saxony
Henzel, Steffen; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2015
We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515377
Cover Image
Robust implementation of a parsimonious dynamic factor model to nowcast GDP
Duarte, Pablo; Süssmuth, Bernd - 2014
Quarterly GDP figures usually are published with a delay of some weeks. A common way to generate GDP series of higher frequency, i.e. to nowcast GDP, is to use available indicators to calculate a single index by means of a common factor derived from a dynamic factor model (DFM). This paper deals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229863
Cover Image
Boosting and regional economic forecasting : the case dof Germany
Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2016
This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two German states (the Free State of Saxony and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750
Cover Image
Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates : evidence from point and density forecasts
Anderl, Christina; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2022
This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013176885
Cover Image
Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs
Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - 2014
accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP inflation. We consider BVAR averaging, Bayesian factor augmented VARs (BFAVARs … optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257225
Cover Image
A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes
Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Liu - 2015
We develop a non-linear forecast combination rule based on copulas that incorporate the dynamic interaction between individual predictors. This approach is optimal in the sense that the resulting combined forecast produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by the receiver operating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010475341